Introduction

This analysis explores the relationships of agricultural commodity loss, at a county level, from 1989-2015, for the 26 county region of the Palouse, in Washington, Idaho, and Oregon. Here we explore the entire range of commodities and damage causes, identifying the top revenue loss commodities and their most pertinent damage causes - as indicated from the USDA’s agricultural commodity loss insurance archive.

In Phase 3, we perform mixed modeling analysis using a two-step hurdle technique, for apples, wheat, cherries, and dry peas, specifically for a selected set of damage causes. The following analysis builds on Phases 1 and 2, steps 1-8.

Step 9. Individual Commodity Mixed Model Analysis. In Step 9, we perform a mixed modeling analysis, using a two step hurdle model technique to address zero-inflated data.

Step 9: Hurdle Mixed Models

Hurdle model techniques allow us to address zero inflated datasets, by first running a logstical regression model to determine the probability of zeros occuring. Then we use the non-zero values in a separate, mixed model. In this instance, we use county as a random effect.

In our two part hurdle model, we identify zero values - that is, counties and years that have zero loss for particular damage causes for apples. Previously we removed counties that we have determined have no apples being grown - based on known crop yield data. The counties we are identifying are those where we KNOW apples are being grown, but in some instances, there are no loss claims being filed in particular years.

As such, these are not missing data, but actual zero values that we do not want to exclude from our model. However we want to be able to use a normalized distribution that is not positively skewed/zero inflated.


Hurdle Model - APPLES

Here we run our hurdle technique for APPLES, using a generalized linear model with a binomal function to delineate between zero and non-zero values. Given this model, Is our data normally distributed? What (if any) outliers exist? Are residuals well distributed - indicating normality?

##          llh      llhNull           G2     McFadden         r2ML 
## -297.6154204 -473.1882133  351.1455859    0.3710422    0.3798222 
##         r2CU 
##    0.5245698
## 
##  Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit (GOF) test
## 
## data:  alllevs2_apples$non_zero, fitted(m1)
## X-squared = 10.439, df = 8, p-value = 0.2356

FIGURE 12: Apples Non-zero Goodness of fit hoslem test


Now plot this Apples zero/non-zero bionomal model to see outliers and the zeros vs non-zeros.


FIGURE 13: Apples zero/non-zero bionomal model to see outliers and zeros values vs non-zero values.

##                            GVIF Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## year               1.164000e+00 14           1.005
## damagecause        8.058934e+10  6           8.107
## county             1.539319e+04  6           2.233
## damagecause:county 2.270375e+14 36           1.583

FIGURE 14: Apples multi-collinearity test for our binomal model.


## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = non_zero ~ year + damagecause * county, family = binomial(link = logit), 
##     data = alllevs2_apples)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -2.4991  -0.6581  -0.2455   0.6389   2.8325  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                            Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept)                              -1.912e+00  8.730e-01  -2.190
## year2002                                 -2.965e-01  5.450e-01  -0.544
## year2003                                  1.457e-01  5.399e-01   0.270
## year2004                                 -7.612e-01  5.553e-01  -1.371
## year2005                                 -1.473e-01  5.428e-01  -0.271
## year2006                                 -4.482e-01  5.478e-01  -0.818
## year2007                                 -4.482e-01  5.478e-01  -0.818
## year2008                                 -1.092e+00  5.666e-01  -1.928
## year2009                                  7.198e-01  5.393e-01   1.335
## year2010                                 -4.482e-01  5.478e-01  -0.818
## year2011                                  5.770e-01  5.388e-01   1.071
## year2012                                 -1.856e+00  6.101e-01  -3.042
## year2013                                  1.006e+00  5.414e-01   1.858
## year2014                                 -1.268e+00  5.742e-01  -2.208
## year2015                                  1.296e+00  5.455e-01   2.375
## damagecauseCold Winter                   -8.137e-01  1.320e+00  -0.617
## damagecauseDrought                       -1.667e+01  1.588e+03  -0.010
## damagecauseFreeze                         2.268e+00  9.686e-01   2.341
## damagecauseFrost                          3.694e+00  1.048e+00   3.526
## damagecauseHail                           1.313e+00  9.839e-01   1.334
## damagecauseHeat                           3.276e-15  1.116e+00   0.000
## countyBenton                              2.582e+00  9.745e-01   2.649
## countyDouglas                             9.506e-01  1.005e+00   0.946
## countyFranklin                            2.268e+00  9.686e-01   2.341
## countyGrant                               1.958e+00  9.680e-01   2.023
## countyUmatilla                            2.268e+00  9.686e-01   2.341
## countyWalla Walla                         1.313e+00  9.839e-01   1.334
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenton      -1.768e+00  1.640e+00  -1.078
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenton          -2.582e+00  2.246e+03  -0.001
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenton           -1.156e+00  1.311e+00  -0.882
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenton            -2.582e+00  1.369e+00  -1.886
## damagecauseHail:countyBenton             -1.937e+00  1.265e+00  -1.531
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenton             -2.051e+00  1.426e+00  -1.438
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas     -9.506e-01  1.802e+00  -0.528
## damagecauseDrought:countyDouglas          1.491e+01  1.588e+03   0.009
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas          -1.260e+00  1.277e+00  -0.987
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas           -1.732e+00  1.348e+00  -1.285
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas            -6.198e-01  1.293e+00  -0.479
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas            -4.195e-01  1.447e+00  -0.290
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin    -1.454e+00  1.636e+00  -0.889
## damagecauseDrought:countyFranklin        -2.268e+00  2.246e+03  -0.001
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin         -8.415e-01  1.307e+00  -0.644
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin          -2.268e+00  1.365e+00  -1.661
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin           -9.987e-01  1.264e+00  -0.790
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin           -2.268e+00  1.478e+00  -1.534
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant       -1.958e+00  1.781e+00  -1.099
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant           -1.958e+00  2.246e+03  -0.001
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant            -9.517e-01  1.277e+00  -0.745
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant             -1.426e+00  1.422e+00  -1.003
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant              -3.590e-01  1.273e+00  -0.282
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant              -1.958e+00  1.478e+00  -1.325
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla    -1.454e+00  1.636e+00  -0.889
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla        -2.268e+00  2.246e+03  -0.001
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla         -1.261e+00  1.277e+00  -0.988
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla          -3.049e+00  1.322e+00  -2.307
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla           -2.268e+00  1.275e+00  -1.779
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla           -2.268e+00  1.478e+00  -1.534
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla -1.313e+00  1.790e+00  -0.733
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla     -1.313e+00  2.246e+03  -0.001
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla      -2.268e+00  1.275e+00  -1.779
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla       -4.056e+00  1.352e+00  -2.999
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla        -2.626e+00  1.393e+00  -1.886
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla        -1.313e+00  1.488e+00  -0.882
##                                          Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                              0.028525 *  
## year2002                                 0.586428    
## year2003                                 0.787270    
## year2004                                 0.170483    
## year2005                                 0.786166    
## year2006                                 0.413256    
## year2007                                 0.413256    
## year2008                                 0.053861 .  
## year2009                                 0.181942    
## year2010                                 0.413256    
## year2011                                 0.284272    
## year2012                                 0.002353 ** 
## year2013                                 0.063140 .  
## year2014                                 0.027262 *  
## year2015                                 0.017553 *  
## damagecauseCold Winter                   0.537492    
## damagecauseDrought                       0.991626    
## damagecauseFreeze                        0.019219 *  
## damagecauseFrost                         0.000422 ***
## damagecauseHail                          0.182067    
## damagecauseHeat                          1.000000    
## countyBenton                             0.008062 ** 
## countyDouglas                            0.343966    
## countyFranklin                           0.019219 *  
## countyGrant                              0.043066 *  
## countyUmatilla                           0.019219 *  
## countyWalla Walla                        0.182067    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenton      0.280897    
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenton          0.999083    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenton           0.377991    
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenton            0.059308 .  
## damagecauseHail:countyBenton             0.125816    
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenton             0.150310    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas     0.597728    
## damagecauseDrought:countyDouglas         0.992512    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas          0.323693    
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas           0.198641    
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas            0.631780    
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas            0.771879    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin    0.374247    
## damagecauseDrought:countyFranklin        0.999195    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin         0.519653    
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin          0.096615 .  
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin           0.429477    
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin           0.124930    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant       0.271640    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant           0.999304    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant            0.456052    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant             0.316066    
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant              0.777934    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant              0.185029    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla    0.374247    
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla        0.999195    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla         0.323394    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla          0.021041 *  
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla           0.075267 .  
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla           0.124930    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla 0.463287    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla     0.999534    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla      0.075267 .  
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla       0.002706 ** 
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla        0.059351 .  
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla        0.377571    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 946.38  on 734  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 595.23  on 672  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 721.23
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 17


FIGURE 14: Apples binomal model summary


Now subset to just those APPLES observations with a loss greater than zero (so all non-zeros), and run a linear regression (switched to log loss due to outliers), to make sure that our residuals and other parameters suggest normality.

## Linear mixed model fit by REML ['lmerMod']
## Formula: log(loss) ~ year + damagecause + (1 | county)
##    Data: subset(alllevs2_apples, non_zero == 1)
## 
## REML criterion at convergence: 880.7
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -2.6105 -0.5833  0.1281  0.6038  3.2595 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups   Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  county   (Intercept) 0.4085   0.6391  
##  Residual             1.9353   1.3912  
## Number of obs: 253, groups:  county, 7
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                        Estimate Std. Error t value
## (Intercept)             10.0015     0.4420  22.627
## year2002                -0.5154     0.4851  -1.062
## year2003                 0.7557     0.4627   1.633
## year2004                -0.8494     0.5155  -1.648
## year2005                 0.4481     0.4732   0.947
## year2006                 0.6558     0.4989   1.315
## year2007                 1.3272     0.4906   2.705
## year2008                 0.3012     0.5431   0.555
## year2009                 1.4475     0.4465   3.242
## year2010                 0.6472     0.4902   1.320
## year2011                 0.5794     0.4467   1.297
## year2012                 0.8257     0.6462   1.278
## year2013                 1.9262     0.4366   4.412
## year2014                 1.1395     0.5637   2.021
## year2015                 1.5109     0.4388   3.444
## damagecauseCold Winter  -0.9218     0.5054  -1.824
## damagecauseDrought      -2.0524     1.4496  -1.416
## damagecauseFreeze        0.1111     0.2829   0.393
## damagecauseFrost         0.1800     0.2760   0.652
## damagecauseHail          0.5523     0.3164   1.746
## damagecauseHeat         -0.8392     0.4382  -1.915


FIGURE 18: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.



FIGURE 19: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Finally, we examine the APPLES model coefficent estimates of our model output.


FIGURE 20: Apples mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Hurdle Model - WHEAT

Here we run our hurdle technique for WHEAT Is our data normally distributed? What (if any) outliers exist? Are residuals well distributed - indicating normality?

##           llh       llhNull            G2      McFadden          r2ML 
## -1392.6347080 -1967.6122795  1149.9551430     0.2922210     0.3184041 
##          r2CU 
##     0.4357824
## 
##  Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit (GOF) test
## 
## data:  alllevs2_wheat$non_zero, fitted(m1)
## X-squared = 8.0966, df = 8, p-value = 0.4241


FIGURE 21: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Checking fo multi collinearity

##                    GVIF  Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## year                NaN  14             NaN
## damagecause         NaN   7             NaN
## county              NaN  24             NaN
## damagecause:county  NaN 168             NaN


FIGURE 22: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = non_zero ~ year + damagecause * county, family = binomial(link = logit), 
##     data = alllevs2_wheat)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -2.6627  -0.8038   0.2544   0.7952   2.3466  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                 Estimate Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                    9.403e-01  6.893e-01
## year2002                                       2.984e-02  2.443e-01
## year2003                                      -5.220e-01  2.488e-01
## year2004                                      -2.990e-02  2.445e-01
## year2005                                      -3.646e-01  2.470e-01
## year2006                                       7.467e-01  2.463e-01
## year2007                                      -1.502e-01  2.452e-01
## year2008                                       1.127e+00  2.514e-01
## year2009                                       1.330e+00  2.554e-01
## year2010                                       9.968e-01  2.493e-01
## year2011                                       3.266e-01  2.440e-01
## year2012                                       1.127e+00  2.514e-01
## year2013                                       1.823e+00  2.696e-01
## year2014                                       1.261e+00  2.540e-01
## year2015                                       1.160e+00  2.520e-01
## damagecauseCold Winter                         1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price                   -4.066e-01  9.063e-01
## damagecauseDrought                             1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze                              1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost                               1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail                               -1.682e+00  8.655e-01
## damagecauseHeat                                1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## countyAsotin                                  -2.306e+00  8.837e-01
## countyBenewah                                 -1.682e+00  8.655e-01
## countyBenton                                  -2.306e+00  8.837e-01
## countyClearwater                              -1.078e+00  8.712e-01
## countyColumbia                                -1.986e+00  8.711e-01
## countyDouglas                                 -1.382e+00  8.655e-01
## countyFranklin                                -1.078e+00  8.712e-01
## countyGarfield                                -2.306e+00  8.837e-01
## countyGilliam                                 -1.986e+00  8.711e-01
## countyGrant                                   -1.382e+00  8.655e-01
## countyIdaho                                   -7.574e-01  8.837e-01
## countyLatah                                   -1.078e+00  8.712e-01
## countyLewis                                   -7.574e-01  8.837e-01
## countyLincoln                                 -1.078e+00  8.712e-01
## countyMorrow                                  -1.682e+00  8.655e-01
## countyNez Perce                               -1.382e+00  8.655e-01
## countySherman                                 -1.986e+00  8.711e-01
## countySpokane                                 -1.382e+00  8.655e-01
## countyUmatilla                                -1.078e+00  8.712e-01
## countyUnion                                   -1.986e+00  8.711e-01
## countyWalla Walla                             -7.574e-01  8.837e-01
## countyWallowa                                 -1.682e+00  8.655e-01
## countyWasco                                   -1.382e+00  8.655e-01
## countyWhitman                                 -1.078e+00  8.712e-01
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyAsotin           -1.655e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyAsotin       7.262e-01  1.210e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyAsotin               -1.355e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyAsotin                -1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyAsotin                 -1.792e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyAsotin                   2.001e+00  1.179e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyAsotin                  -1.355e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenewah          -1.687e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenewah     -2.173e-01  1.206e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenewah              -1.497e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenewah               -1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenewah                -1.687e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyBenewah                 -2.133e-01  1.287e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenewah                 -1.589e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenton           -1.527e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenton       1.330e+00  1.206e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenton               -1.435e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenton                -1.562e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenton                 -1.625e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyBenton                  -3.867e-01  1.477e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenton                  -1.562e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyClearwater       -1.875e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyClearwater  -1.171e+00  1.226e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyClearwater           -1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyClearwater            -1.915e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyClearwater             -1.915e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyClearwater               1.078e+00  1.166e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyClearwater              -1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyColumbia         -1.749e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyColumbia     1.315e+00  1.201e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyColumbia             -1.467e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyColumbia              -1.687e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyColumbia               -1.657e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyColumbia                 6.068e-01  1.227e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyColumbia                -1.467e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas          -1.527e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyDouglas      4.066e-01  1.193e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyDouglas               1.382e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas               -1.527e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas                -1.447e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas                  1.078e+00  1.166e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas                 -1.527e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin         -1.478e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyFranklin     1.078e+00  1.227e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyFranklin              1.078e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin              -1.609e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin               -1.478e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin                 1.078e+00  1.166e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin                 1.078e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGarfield         -1.792e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGarfield     1.330e+00  1.206e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyGarfield             -1.355e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGarfield              -1.594e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyGarfield               -1.685e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyGarfield                 1.682e+00  1.188e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyGarfield                -1.355e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGilliam          -1.749e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGilliam      1.315e+00  1.201e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyGilliam              -1.387e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGilliam               -1.687e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyGilliam                -1.749e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyGilliam                  1.362e+00  1.179e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyGilliam                  1.986e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant            -1.619e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant        1.031e+00  1.206e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant                 1.382e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                 -1.447e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                   1.382e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                    7.584e-01  1.175e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                   -1.447e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyIdaho            -1.779e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyIdaho       -8.222e-01  1.210e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyIdaho                -1.590e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyIdaho                 -1.840e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyIdaho                  -1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyIdaho                    1.057e+00  1.175e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyIdaho                   -1.641e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLatah            -1.777e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLatah        1.020e-01  1.197e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyLatah                -1.558e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLatah                 -1.747e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyLatah                  -1.777e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyLatah                    4.538e-01  1.179e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyLatah                   -1.609e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLewis            -1.809e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLewis       -2.183e-01  1.206e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyLewis                 7.574e-01  2.263e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLewis                 -1.872e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyLewis                  -1.779e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyLewis                    4.531e-01  1.179e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyLewis                   -1.641e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLincoln          -1.609e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLincoln      1.078e+00  1.227e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyLincoln               1.078e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLincoln                1.078e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyLincoln                 1.078e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyLincoln                  2.353e+00  1.197e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyLincoln                  1.078e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyMorrow           -1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyMorrow       1.682e+00  1.223e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyMorrow               -1.417e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyMorrow                -1.549e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyMorrow                 -1.589e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyMorrow                   1.378e+00  1.166e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyMorrow                  -1.417e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyNez Perce        -1.686e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyNez Perce    4.066e-01  1.193e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyNez Perce             1.382e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyNez Perce             -1.747e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyNez Perce              -1.777e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyNez Perce                1.382e+00  1.162e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyNez Perce               -1.579e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySherman          -1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySherman      1.986e+00  1.227e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countySherman              -1.387e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countySherman               -1.657e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countySherman                -1.876e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countySherman                 -7.063e-01  1.470e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countySherman                 -1.387e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySpokane          -1.654e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySpokane      7.112e-01  1.197e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countySpokane               1.382e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countySpokane               -1.654e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countySpokane                -1.619e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countySpokane                  1.682e+00  1.162e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countySpokane                  1.382e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla         -1.685e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla     1.484e+00  1.257e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla             -1.478e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla              -1.478e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla               -1.478e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                 1.682e+00  1.170e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                 1.078e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUnion            -1.657e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUnion        4.066e-01  1.200e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyUnion                -1.467e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUnion                 -1.594e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyUnion                  -1.626e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyUnion                    2.590e+00  1.171e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyUnion                   -1.387e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla      -1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla  8.630e-02  1.210e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla          -1.510e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla           -1.682e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla            -1.590e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla              1.335e-01  1.189e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla              7.574e-01  2.263e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWallowa          -1.814e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWallowa     -2.173e-01  1.206e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyWallowa              -1.624e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWallowa               -1.814e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyWallowa                -1.747e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyWallowa                  1.058e+00  1.175e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyWallowa                 -1.657e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWasco            -1.747e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWasco        1.031e+00  1.206e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyWasco                -1.527e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWasco                 -1.619e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyWasco                  -1.777e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyWasco                    2.944e-03  1.223e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyWasco                   -1.447e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWhitman          -1.650e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWhitman      1.078e+00  1.227e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyWhitman               1.078e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWhitman               -1.650e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyWhitman                -1.478e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyWhitman                  1.682e+00  1.170e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyWhitman                  1.078e+00  2.263e+03
##                                               z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                     1.364  0.17255    
## year2002                                        0.122  0.90278    
## year2003                                       -2.098  0.03591 *  
## year2004                                       -0.122  0.90269    
## year2005                                       -1.476  0.13989    
## year2006                                        3.031  0.00244 ** 
## year2007                                       -0.613  0.54015    
## year2008                                        4.481 7.42e-06 ***
## year2009                                        5.206 1.93e-07 ***
## year2010                                        3.998 6.40e-05 ***
## year2011                                        1.338  0.18084    
## year2012                                        4.481 7.42e-06 ***
## year2013                                        6.762 1.36e-11 ***
## year2014                                        4.965 6.89e-07 ***
## year2015                                        4.602 4.18e-06 ***
## damagecauseCold Winter                          0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseDecline in Price                    -0.449  0.65370    
## damagecauseDrought                              0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseFreeze                               0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseFrost                                0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseHail                                -1.943  0.05199 .  
## damagecauseHeat                                 0.011  0.99144    
## countyAsotin                                   -2.609  0.00908 ** 
## countyBenewah                                  -1.943  0.05199 .  
## countyBenton                                   -2.609  0.00908 ** 
## countyClearwater                               -1.237  0.21608    
## countyColumbia                                 -2.280  0.02261 *  
## countyDouglas                                  -1.597  0.11026    
## countyFranklin                                 -1.237  0.21608    
## countyGarfield                                 -2.609  0.00908 ** 
## countyGilliam                                  -2.280  0.02261 *  
## countyGrant                                    -1.597  0.11026    
## countyIdaho                                    -0.857  0.39141    
## countyLatah                                    -1.237  0.21608    
## countyLewis                                    -0.857  0.39141    
## countyLincoln                                  -1.237  0.21608    
## countyMorrow                                   -1.943  0.05199 .  
## countyNez Perce                                -1.597  0.11026    
## countySherman                                  -2.280  0.02261 *  
## countySpokane                                  -1.597  0.11026    
## countyUmatilla                                 -1.237  0.21608    
## countyUnion                                    -2.280  0.02261 *  
## countyWalla Walla                              -0.857  0.39141    
## countyWallowa                                  -1.943  0.05199 .  
## countyWasco                                    -1.597  0.11026    
## countyWhitman                                  -1.237  0.21608    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyAsotin            -0.010  0.99175    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyAsotin        0.600  0.54826    
## damagecauseDrought:countyAsotin                -0.008  0.99325    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyAsotin                 -0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseFrost:countyAsotin                  -0.011  0.99106    
## damagecauseHail:countyAsotin                    1.697  0.08968 .  
## damagecauseHeat:countyAsotin                   -0.008  0.99325    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenewah           -0.011  0.99159    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenewah      -0.180  0.85698    
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenewah               -0.009  0.99254    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenewah                -0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenewah                 -0.011  0.99159    
## damagecauseHail:countyBenewah                  -0.166  0.86835    
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenewah                  -0.010  0.99208    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenton            -0.010  0.99239    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenton        1.103  0.26999    
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenton                -0.009  0.99285    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenton                 -0.010  0.99221    
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenton                  -0.010  0.99190    
## damagecauseHail:countyBenton                   -0.262  0.79347    
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenton                   -0.010  0.99221    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyClearwater        -0.012  0.99065    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyClearwater   -0.955  0.33952    
## damagecauseDrought:countyClearwater            -0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyClearwater             -0.012  0.99045    
## damagecauseFrost:countyClearwater              -0.012  0.99045    
## damagecauseHail:countyClearwater                0.924  0.35537    
## damagecauseHeat:countyClearwater               -0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyColumbia          -0.011  0.99128    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyColumbia      1.095  0.27346    
## damagecauseDrought:countyColumbia              -0.009  0.99269    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyColumbia               -0.011  0.99159    
## damagecauseFrost:countyColumbia                -0.010  0.99174    
## damagecauseHail:countyColumbia                  0.494  0.62096    
## damagecauseHeat:countyColumbia                 -0.009  0.99269    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas           -0.010  0.99239    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyDouglas       0.341  0.73317    
## damagecauseDrought:countyDouglas                0.001  0.99951    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas                -0.010  0.99239    
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas                 -0.009  0.99278    
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas                   0.925  0.35515    
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas                  -0.010  0.99239    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin          -0.009  0.99263    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyFranklin      0.878  0.37971    
## damagecauseDrought:countyFranklin               0.000  0.99962    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin               -0.010  0.99198    
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin                -0.009  0.99263    
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin                  0.924  0.35537    
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin                  0.000  0.99962    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGarfield          -0.011  0.99106    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGarfield      1.103  0.26999    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGarfield              -0.008  0.99325    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGarfield               -0.010  0.99205    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGarfield                -0.011  0.99160    
## damagecauseHail:countyGarfield                  1.415  0.15702    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGarfield                 -0.008  0.99325    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGilliam           -0.011  0.99128    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGilliam       1.095  0.27346    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGilliam               -0.009  0.99309    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGilliam                -0.011  0.99159    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGilliam                 -0.011  0.99128    
## damagecauseHail:countyGilliam                   1.155  0.24798    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGilliam                   0.001  0.99930    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant             -0.010  0.99193    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant         0.855  0.39241    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant                  0.001  0.99951    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                  -0.009  0.99278    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                    0.001  0.99951    
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                     0.645  0.51867    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                    -0.009  0.99278    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyIdaho             -0.011  0.99113    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyIdaho        -0.680  0.49679    
## damagecauseDrought:countyIdaho                 -0.010  0.99208    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyIdaho                  -0.011  0.99083    
## damagecauseFrost:countyIdaho                   -0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseHail:countyIdaho                     0.899  0.36855    
## damagecauseHeat:countyIdaho                    -0.010  0.99182    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLatah             -0.011  0.99114    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLatah         0.085  0.93210    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLatah                 -0.010  0.99224    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLatah                  -0.011  0.99129    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLatah                   -0.011  0.99114    
## damagecauseHail:countyLatah                     0.385  0.70038    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLatah                    -0.010  0.99198    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLewis             -0.011  0.99098    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLewis        -0.181  0.85634    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLewis                  0.000  0.99973    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLewis                  -0.012  0.99067    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLewis                   -0.011  0.99113    
## damagecauseHail:countyLewis                     0.384  0.70084    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLewis                    -0.010  0.99182    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLincoln           -0.010  0.99198    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLincoln       0.878  0.37971    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLincoln                0.000  0.99962    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLincoln                 0.000  0.99962    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLincoln                  0.000  0.99962    
## damagecauseHail:countyLincoln                   1.966  0.04935 *  
## damagecauseHeat:countyLincoln                   0.000  0.99962    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyMorrow            -0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyMorrow        1.375  0.16899    
## damagecauseDrought:countyMorrow                -0.009  0.99293    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyMorrow                 -0.010  0.99228    
## damagecauseFrost:countyMorrow                  -0.010  0.99208    
## damagecauseHail:countyMorrow                    1.182  0.23733    
## damagecauseHeat:countyMorrow                   -0.009  0.99293    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyNez Perce         -0.011  0.99159    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyNez Perce     0.341  0.73317    
## damagecauseDrought:countyNez Perce              0.001  0.99951    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyNez Perce              -0.011  0.99129    
## damagecauseFrost:countyNez Perce               -0.011  0.99114    
## damagecauseHail:countyNez Perce                 1.190  0.23414    
## damagecauseHeat:countyNez Perce                -0.010  0.99213    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySherman           -0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySherman       1.619  0.10545    
## damagecauseDrought:countySherman               -0.009  0.99309    
## damagecauseFreeze:countySherman                -0.010  0.99174    
## damagecauseFrost:countySherman                 -0.012  0.99065    
## damagecauseHail:countySherman                  -0.481  0.63082    
## damagecauseHeat:countySherman                  -0.009  0.99309    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySpokane           -0.010  0.99175    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySpokane       0.594  0.55235    
## damagecauseDrought:countySpokane                0.001  0.99951    
## damagecauseFreeze:countySpokane                -0.010  0.99175    
## damagecauseFrost:countySpokane                 -0.010  0.99193    
## damagecauseHail:countySpokane                   1.447  0.14777    
## damagecauseHeat:countySpokane                   0.001  0.99951    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla          -0.011  0.99160    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla      1.181  0.23775    
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla              -0.009  0.99263    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla               -0.009  0.99263    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                -0.009  0.99263    
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                  1.437  0.15074    
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                  0.000  0.99962    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUnion             -0.010  0.99174    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUnion         0.339  0.73485    
## damagecauseDrought:countyUnion                 -0.009  0.99269    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUnion                  -0.010  0.99205    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUnion                   -0.010  0.99189    
## damagecauseHail:countyUnion                     2.213  0.02690 *  
## damagecauseHeat:countyUnion                    -0.009  0.99309    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla       -0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla   0.071  0.94315    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla           -0.009  0.99247    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla            -0.011  0.99162    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla             -0.010  0.99208    
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla               0.112  0.91056    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla               0.000  0.99973    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWallowa           -0.011  0.99096    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWallowa      -0.180  0.85698    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWallowa               -0.010  0.99190    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWallowa                -0.011  0.99096    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWallowa                 -0.011  0.99129    
## damagecauseHail:countyWallowa                   0.900  0.36790    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWallowa                  -0.010  0.99174    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWasco             -0.011  0.99129    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWasco         0.855  0.39241    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWasco                 -0.010  0.99239    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWasco                  -0.010  0.99193    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWasco                   -0.011  0.99114    
## damagecauseHail:countyWasco                     0.002  0.99808    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWasco                    -0.009  0.99278    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWhitman           -0.010  0.99178    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWhitman       0.878  0.37971    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWhitman                0.000  0.99962    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWhitman                -0.010  0.99178    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWhitman                 -0.009  0.99263    
## damagecauseHail:countyWhitman                   1.437  0.15074    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWhitman                   0.000  0.99962    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 3935.2  on 2999  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2785.3  on 2786  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 3213.3
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 17

FIGURE 23: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Now we run our WHEAT mixed model analysis for these zero values.


FIGURE 24: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Checking for mulit-collinearity for zero value run

##                    GVIF  Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## year                NaN  14             NaN
## damagecause         NaN   7             NaN
## county              NaN  24             NaN
## damagecause:county  NaN 168             NaN


FIGURE 25: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = non_zero ~ year + damagecause * county, family = binomial(link = logit), 
##     data = alllevs2_wheat)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -2.6627  -0.8038   0.2544   0.7952   2.3466  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                 Estimate Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                    9.403e-01  6.893e-01
## year2002                                       2.984e-02  2.443e-01
## year2003                                      -5.220e-01  2.488e-01
## year2004                                      -2.990e-02  2.445e-01
## year2005                                      -3.646e-01  2.470e-01
## year2006                                       7.467e-01  2.463e-01
## year2007                                      -1.502e-01  2.452e-01
## year2008                                       1.127e+00  2.514e-01
## year2009                                       1.330e+00  2.554e-01
## year2010                                       9.968e-01  2.493e-01
## year2011                                       3.266e-01  2.440e-01
## year2012                                       1.127e+00  2.514e-01
## year2013                                       1.823e+00  2.696e-01
## year2014                                       1.261e+00  2.540e-01
## year2015                                       1.160e+00  2.520e-01
## damagecauseCold Winter                         1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price                   -4.066e-01  9.063e-01
## damagecauseDrought                             1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze                              1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost                               1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail                               -1.682e+00  8.655e-01
## damagecauseHeat                                1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## countyAsotin                                  -2.306e+00  8.837e-01
## countyBenewah                                 -1.682e+00  8.655e-01
## countyBenton                                  -2.306e+00  8.837e-01
## countyClearwater                              -1.078e+00  8.712e-01
## countyColumbia                                -1.986e+00  8.711e-01
## countyDouglas                                 -1.382e+00  8.655e-01
## countyFranklin                                -1.078e+00  8.712e-01
## countyGarfield                                -2.306e+00  8.837e-01
## countyGilliam                                 -1.986e+00  8.711e-01
## countyGrant                                   -1.382e+00  8.655e-01
## countyIdaho                                   -7.574e-01  8.837e-01
## countyLatah                                   -1.078e+00  8.712e-01
## countyLewis                                   -7.574e-01  8.837e-01
## countyLincoln                                 -1.078e+00  8.712e-01
## countyMorrow                                  -1.682e+00  8.655e-01
## countyNez Perce                               -1.382e+00  8.655e-01
## countySherman                                 -1.986e+00  8.711e-01
## countySpokane                                 -1.382e+00  8.655e-01
## countyUmatilla                                -1.078e+00  8.712e-01
## countyUnion                                   -1.986e+00  8.711e-01
## countyWalla Walla                             -7.574e-01  8.837e-01
## countyWallowa                                 -1.682e+00  8.655e-01
## countyWasco                                   -1.382e+00  8.655e-01
## countyWhitman                                 -1.078e+00  8.712e-01
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyAsotin           -1.655e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyAsotin       7.262e-01  1.210e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyAsotin               -1.355e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyAsotin                -1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyAsotin                 -1.792e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyAsotin                   2.001e+00  1.179e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyAsotin                  -1.355e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenewah          -1.687e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenewah     -2.173e-01  1.206e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenewah              -1.497e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenewah               -1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenewah                -1.687e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyBenewah                 -2.133e-01  1.287e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenewah                 -1.589e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenton           -1.527e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenton       1.330e+00  1.206e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenton               -1.435e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenton                -1.562e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenton                 -1.625e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyBenton                  -3.867e-01  1.477e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenton                  -1.562e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyClearwater       -1.875e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyClearwater  -1.171e+00  1.226e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyClearwater           -1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyClearwater            -1.915e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyClearwater             -1.915e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyClearwater               1.078e+00  1.166e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyClearwater              -1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyColumbia         -1.749e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyColumbia     1.315e+00  1.201e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyColumbia             -1.467e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyColumbia              -1.687e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyColumbia               -1.657e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyColumbia                 6.068e-01  1.227e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyColumbia                -1.467e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas          -1.527e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyDouglas      4.066e-01  1.193e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyDouglas               1.382e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas               -1.527e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas                -1.447e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas                  1.078e+00  1.166e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas                 -1.527e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin         -1.478e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyFranklin     1.078e+00  1.227e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyFranklin              1.078e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin              -1.609e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin               -1.478e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin                 1.078e+00  1.166e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin                 1.078e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGarfield         -1.792e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGarfield     1.330e+00  1.206e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyGarfield             -1.355e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGarfield              -1.594e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyGarfield               -1.685e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyGarfield                 1.682e+00  1.188e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyGarfield                -1.355e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGilliam          -1.749e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGilliam      1.315e+00  1.201e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyGilliam              -1.387e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGilliam               -1.687e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyGilliam                -1.749e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyGilliam                  1.362e+00  1.179e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyGilliam                  1.986e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant            -1.619e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant        1.031e+00  1.206e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant                 1.382e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                 -1.447e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                   1.382e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                    7.584e-01  1.175e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                   -1.447e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyIdaho            -1.779e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyIdaho       -8.222e-01  1.210e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyIdaho                -1.590e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyIdaho                 -1.840e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyIdaho                  -1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyIdaho                    1.057e+00  1.175e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyIdaho                   -1.641e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLatah            -1.777e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLatah        1.020e-01  1.197e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyLatah                -1.558e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLatah                 -1.747e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyLatah                  -1.777e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyLatah                    4.538e-01  1.179e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyLatah                   -1.609e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLewis            -1.809e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLewis       -2.183e-01  1.206e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyLewis                 7.574e-01  2.263e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLewis                 -1.872e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyLewis                  -1.779e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyLewis                    4.531e-01  1.179e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyLewis                   -1.641e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLincoln          -1.609e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLincoln      1.078e+00  1.227e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyLincoln               1.078e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLincoln                1.078e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyLincoln                 1.078e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyLincoln                  2.353e+00  1.197e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyLincoln                  1.078e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyMorrow           -1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyMorrow       1.682e+00  1.223e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyMorrow               -1.417e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyMorrow                -1.549e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyMorrow                 -1.589e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyMorrow                   1.378e+00  1.166e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyMorrow                  -1.417e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyNez Perce        -1.686e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyNez Perce    4.066e-01  1.193e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyNez Perce             1.382e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyNez Perce             -1.747e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyNez Perce              -1.777e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyNez Perce                1.382e+00  1.162e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyNez Perce               -1.579e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySherman          -1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySherman      1.986e+00  1.227e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countySherman              -1.387e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countySherman               -1.657e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countySherman                -1.876e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countySherman                 -7.063e-01  1.470e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countySherman                 -1.387e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySpokane          -1.654e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySpokane      7.112e-01  1.197e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countySpokane               1.382e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countySpokane               -1.654e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countySpokane                -1.619e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countySpokane                  1.682e+00  1.162e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countySpokane                  1.382e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla         -1.685e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla     1.484e+00  1.257e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla             -1.478e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla              -1.478e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla               -1.478e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                 1.682e+00  1.170e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                 1.078e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUnion            -1.657e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUnion        4.066e-01  1.200e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyUnion                -1.467e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUnion                 -1.594e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyUnion                  -1.626e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyUnion                    2.590e+00  1.171e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyUnion                   -1.387e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla      -1.717e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla  8.630e-02  1.210e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla          -1.510e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla           -1.682e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla            -1.590e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla              1.335e-01  1.189e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla              7.574e-01  2.263e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWallowa          -1.814e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWallowa     -2.173e-01  1.206e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyWallowa              -1.624e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWallowa               -1.814e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyWallowa                -1.747e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyWallowa                  1.058e+00  1.175e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyWallowa                 -1.657e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWasco            -1.747e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWasco        1.031e+00  1.206e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyWasco                -1.527e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWasco                 -1.619e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyWasco                  -1.777e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyWasco                    2.944e-03  1.223e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyWasco                   -1.447e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWhitman          -1.650e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWhitman      1.078e+00  1.227e+00
## damagecauseDrought:countyWhitman               1.078e+00  2.263e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWhitman               -1.650e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyWhitman                -1.478e+01  1.600e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyWhitman                  1.682e+00  1.170e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyWhitman                  1.078e+00  2.263e+03
##                                               z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                     1.364  0.17255    
## year2002                                        0.122  0.90278    
## year2003                                       -2.098  0.03591 *  
## year2004                                       -0.122  0.90269    
## year2005                                       -1.476  0.13989    
## year2006                                        3.031  0.00244 ** 
## year2007                                       -0.613  0.54015    
## year2008                                        4.481 7.42e-06 ***
## year2009                                        5.206 1.93e-07 ***
## year2010                                        3.998 6.40e-05 ***
## year2011                                        1.338  0.18084    
## year2012                                        4.481 7.42e-06 ***
## year2013                                        6.762 1.36e-11 ***
## year2014                                        4.965 6.89e-07 ***
## year2015                                        4.602 4.18e-06 ***
## damagecauseCold Winter                          0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseDecline in Price                    -0.449  0.65370    
## damagecauseDrought                              0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseFreeze                               0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseFrost                                0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseHail                                -1.943  0.05199 .  
## damagecauseHeat                                 0.011  0.99144    
## countyAsotin                                   -2.609  0.00908 ** 
## countyBenewah                                  -1.943  0.05199 .  
## countyBenton                                   -2.609  0.00908 ** 
## countyClearwater                               -1.237  0.21608    
## countyColumbia                                 -2.280  0.02261 *  
## countyDouglas                                  -1.597  0.11026    
## countyFranklin                                 -1.237  0.21608    
## countyGarfield                                 -2.609  0.00908 ** 
## countyGilliam                                  -2.280  0.02261 *  
## countyGrant                                    -1.597  0.11026    
## countyIdaho                                    -0.857  0.39141    
## countyLatah                                    -1.237  0.21608    
## countyLewis                                    -0.857  0.39141    
## countyLincoln                                  -1.237  0.21608    
## countyMorrow                                   -1.943  0.05199 .  
## countyNez Perce                                -1.597  0.11026    
## countySherman                                  -2.280  0.02261 *  
## countySpokane                                  -1.597  0.11026    
## countyUmatilla                                 -1.237  0.21608    
## countyUnion                                    -2.280  0.02261 *  
## countyWalla Walla                              -0.857  0.39141    
## countyWallowa                                  -1.943  0.05199 .  
## countyWasco                                    -1.597  0.11026    
## countyWhitman                                  -1.237  0.21608    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyAsotin            -0.010  0.99175    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyAsotin        0.600  0.54826    
## damagecauseDrought:countyAsotin                -0.008  0.99325    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyAsotin                 -0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseFrost:countyAsotin                  -0.011  0.99106    
## damagecauseHail:countyAsotin                    1.697  0.08968 .  
## damagecauseHeat:countyAsotin                   -0.008  0.99325    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenewah           -0.011  0.99159    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenewah      -0.180  0.85698    
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenewah               -0.009  0.99254    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenewah                -0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenewah                 -0.011  0.99159    
## damagecauseHail:countyBenewah                  -0.166  0.86835    
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenewah                  -0.010  0.99208    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenton            -0.010  0.99239    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenton        1.103  0.26999    
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenton                -0.009  0.99285    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenton                 -0.010  0.99221    
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenton                  -0.010  0.99190    
## damagecauseHail:countyBenton                   -0.262  0.79347    
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenton                   -0.010  0.99221    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyClearwater        -0.012  0.99065    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyClearwater   -0.955  0.33952    
## damagecauseDrought:countyClearwater            -0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyClearwater             -0.012  0.99045    
## damagecauseFrost:countyClearwater              -0.012  0.99045    
## damagecauseHail:countyClearwater                0.924  0.35537    
## damagecauseHeat:countyClearwater               -0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyColumbia          -0.011  0.99128    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyColumbia      1.095  0.27346    
## damagecauseDrought:countyColumbia              -0.009  0.99269    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyColumbia               -0.011  0.99159    
## damagecauseFrost:countyColumbia                -0.010  0.99174    
## damagecauseHail:countyColumbia                  0.494  0.62096    
## damagecauseHeat:countyColumbia                 -0.009  0.99269    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas           -0.010  0.99239    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyDouglas       0.341  0.73317    
## damagecauseDrought:countyDouglas                0.001  0.99951    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas                -0.010  0.99239    
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas                 -0.009  0.99278    
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas                   0.925  0.35515    
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas                  -0.010  0.99239    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin          -0.009  0.99263    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyFranklin      0.878  0.37971    
## damagecauseDrought:countyFranklin               0.000  0.99962    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin               -0.010  0.99198    
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin                -0.009  0.99263    
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin                  0.924  0.35537    
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin                  0.000  0.99962    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGarfield          -0.011  0.99106    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGarfield      1.103  0.26999    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGarfield              -0.008  0.99325    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGarfield               -0.010  0.99205    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGarfield                -0.011  0.99160    
## damagecauseHail:countyGarfield                  1.415  0.15702    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGarfield                 -0.008  0.99325    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGilliam           -0.011  0.99128    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGilliam       1.095  0.27346    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGilliam               -0.009  0.99309    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGilliam                -0.011  0.99159    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGilliam                 -0.011  0.99128    
## damagecauseHail:countyGilliam                   1.155  0.24798    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGilliam                   0.001  0.99930    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant             -0.010  0.99193    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant         0.855  0.39241    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant                  0.001  0.99951    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                  -0.009  0.99278    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                    0.001  0.99951    
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                     0.645  0.51867    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                    -0.009  0.99278    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyIdaho             -0.011  0.99113    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyIdaho        -0.680  0.49679    
## damagecauseDrought:countyIdaho                 -0.010  0.99208    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyIdaho                  -0.011  0.99083    
## damagecauseFrost:countyIdaho                   -0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseHail:countyIdaho                     0.899  0.36855    
## damagecauseHeat:countyIdaho                    -0.010  0.99182    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLatah             -0.011  0.99114    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLatah         0.085  0.93210    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLatah                 -0.010  0.99224    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLatah                  -0.011  0.99129    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLatah                   -0.011  0.99114    
## damagecauseHail:countyLatah                     0.385  0.70038    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLatah                    -0.010  0.99198    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLewis             -0.011  0.99098    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLewis        -0.181  0.85634    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLewis                  0.000  0.99973    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLewis                  -0.012  0.99067    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLewis                   -0.011  0.99113    
## damagecauseHail:countyLewis                     0.384  0.70084    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLewis                    -0.010  0.99182    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLincoln           -0.010  0.99198    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLincoln       0.878  0.37971    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLincoln                0.000  0.99962    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLincoln                 0.000  0.99962    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLincoln                  0.000  0.99962    
## damagecauseHail:countyLincoln                   1.966  0.04935 *  
## damagecauseHeat:countyLincoln                   0.000  0.99962    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyMorrow            -0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyMorrow        1.375  0.16899    
## damagecauseDrought:countyMorrow                -0.009  0.99293    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyMorrow                 -0.010  0.99228    
## damagecauseFrost:countyMorrow                  -0.010  0.99208    
## damagecauseHail:countyMorrow                    1.182  0.23733    
## damagecauseHeat:countyMorrow                   -0.009  0.99293    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyNez Perce         -0.011  0.99159    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyNez Perce     0.341  0.73317    
## damagecauseDrought:countyNez Perce              0.001  0.99951    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyNez Perce              -0.011  0.99129    
## damagecauseFrost:countyNez Perce               -0.011  0.99114    
## damagecauseHail:countyNez Perce                 1.190  0.23414    
## damagecauseHeat:countyNez Perce                -0.010  0.99213    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySherman           -0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySherman       1.619  0.10545    
## damagecauseDrought:countySherman               -0.009  0.99309    
## damagecauseFreeze:countySherman                -0.010  0.99174    
## damagecauseFrost:countySherman                 -0.012  0.99065    
## damagecauseHail:countySherman                  -0.481  0.63082    
## damagecauseHeat:countySherman                  -0.009  0.99309    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySpokane           -0.010  0.99175    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySpokane       0.594  0.55235    
## damagecauseDrought:countySpokane                0.001  0.99951    
## damagecauseFreeze:countySpokane                -0.010  0.99175    
## damagecauseFrost:countySpokane                 -0.010  0.99193    
## damagecauseHail:countySpokane                   1.447  0.14777    
## damagecauseHeat:countySpokane                   0.001  0.99951    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla          -0.011  0.99160    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla      1.181  0.23775    
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla              -0.009  0.99263    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla               -0.009  0.99263    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                -0.009  0.99263    
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                  1.437  0.15074    
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                  0.000  0.99962    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUnion             -0.010  0.99174    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUnion         0.339  0.73485    
## damagecauseDrought:countyUnion                 -0.009  0.99269    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUnion                  -0.010  0.99205    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUnion                   -0.010  0.99189    
## damagecauseHail:countyUnion                     2.213  0.02690 *  
## damagecauseHeat:countyUnion                    -0.009  0.99309    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla       -0.011  0.99144    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla   0.071  0.94315    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla           -0.009  0.99247    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla            -0.011  0.99162    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla             -0.010  0.99208    
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla               0.112  0.91056    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla               0.000  0.99973    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWallowa           -0.011  0.99096    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWallowa      -0.180  0.85698    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWallowa               -0.010  0.99190    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWallowa                -0.011  0.99096    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWallowa                 -0.011  0.99129    
## damagecauseHail:countyWallowa                   0.900  0.36790    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWallowa                  -0.010  0.99174    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWasco             -0.011  0.99129    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWasco         0.855  0.39241    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWasco                 -0.010  0.99239    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWasco                  -0.010  0.99193    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWasco                   -0.011  0.99114    
## damagecauseHail:countyWasco                     0.002  0.99808    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWasco                    -0.009  0.99278    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWhitman           -0.010  0.99178    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWhitman       0.878  0.37971    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWhitman                0.000  0.99962    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWhitman                -0.010  0.99178    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWhitman                 -0.009  0.99263    
## damagecauseHail:countyWhitman                   1.437  0.15074    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWhitman                   0.000  0.99962    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 3935.2  on 2999  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2785.3  on 2786  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 3213.3
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 17


FIGURE 26: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Now subset to just those WHEAT observations with a loss greater than zero (so all non-zeros), and run a linear regression (switched to log loss due to outliers), to make sure that our residuals and other parameters suggest normality.

## Linear mixed model fit by REML ['lmerMod']
## Formula: log(loss) ~ year + damagecause + (1 | county)
##    Data: subset(alllevs2_wheat, non_zero == 1)
## 
## REML criterion at convergence: 7179.9
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -3.6996 -0.5892  0.0703  0.6781  2.6628 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups   Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  county   (Intercept) 0.3674   0.6061  
##  Residual             2.4149   1.5540  
## Number of obs: 1907, groups:  county, 25
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                             Estimate Std. Error t value
## (Intercept)                  7.99724    0.22116   36.16
## year2002                     0.43290    0.21176    2.04
## year2003                     0.41796    0.22225    1.88
## year2004                     0.27795    0.21310    1.30
## year2005                     0.07724    0.21910    0.35
## year2006                     0.68710    0.20185    3.40
## year2007                     1.05394    0.21526    4.90
## year2008                     1.69925    0.19843    8.56
## year2009                     2.80687    0.19683   14.26
## year2010                     1.03500    0.19983    5.18
## year2011                     1.13875    0.20808    5.47
## year2012                     1.08797    0.19821    5.49
## year2013                     1.87594    0.19346    9.70
## year2014                     2.09590    0.19745   10.61
## year2015                     2.44563    0.19867   12.31
## damagecauseCold Winter      -0.20275    0.15514   -1.31
## damagecauseDecline in Price  0.25623    0.15697    1.63
## damagecauseDrought           1.95038    0.14151   13.78
## damagecauseFreeze           -0.07762    0.15223   -0.51
## damagecauseFrost             0.50660    0.15314    3.31
## damagecauseHail              0.60254    0.17121    3.52
## damagecauseHeat              1.11373    0.14213    7.84


FIGURE 27: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.



FIGURE 28: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Finally, we examine the WHEAT coefficent estimates of our model output.


FIGURE 29: Wheat mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Hurdle Model - CHERRIES

Here we run our hurdle technique for CHERRIES Is our data normally distributed? What (if any) outliers exist? Are residuals well distributed - indicating normality?

##          llh      llhNull           G2     McFadden         r2ML 
## -317.8075409 -487.9400087  340.2649356    0.3486750    0.3705731 
##         r2CU 
##    0.5042351
## 
##  Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit (GOF) test
## 
## data:  alllevs2_cherries$non_zero, fitted(m1)
## X-squared = 20.237, df = 8, p-value = 0.009476


FIGURE 30: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Checking for multi-collinearity

##                            GVIF Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## year               1.234000e+00 14           1.008
## damagecause        8.692688e+04  6           2.580
## county             3.305766e+04  6           2.380
## damagecause:county 5.530000e+08 36           1.323


FIGURE 31: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = non_zero ~ year + damagecause * county, family = binomial(link = logit), 
##     data = alllevs2_cherries)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -2.3889  -0.6865  -0.2662   0.7332   2.6657  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                               Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept)                                    -0.2557     0.8504  -0.301
## year2002                                        1.3468     0.6496   2.073
## year2003                                        0.8558     0.6683   1.281
## year2004                                        1.0287     0.6607   1.557
## year2005                                        1.6378     0.6424   2.549
## year2006                                        0.2489     0.7071   0.352
## year2007                                        1.4951     0.6457   2.316
## year2008                                        1.7759     0.6398   2.775
## year2009                                        3.0258     0.6360   4.757
## year2010                                        3.2700     0.6391   5.116
## year2011                                        2.4185     0.6337   3.816
## year2012                                        3.0258     0.6360   4.757
## year2013                                        3.3940     0.6412   5.293
## year2014                                        2.7839     0.6342   4.390
## year2015                                        3.9136     0.6542   5.982
## damagecauseCold Winter                         -4.0757     1.0832  -3.763
## damagecauseDecline in Price                    -2.6691     0.9463  -2.821
## damagecauseFreeze                              -0.4601     0.9638  -0.477
## damagecauseFrost                               -0.4601     0.9638  -0.477
## damagecauseHail                                -2.3002     0.9341  -2.462
## damagecauseHeat                                -3.5171     1.0063  -3.495
## countyDouglas                                  -1.9451     0.9282  -2.095
## countyFranklin                                 -1.5936     0.9275  -1.718
## countyGrant                                    -1.5936     0.9275  -1.718
## countyUmatilla                                 -1.5936     0.9275  -1.718
## countyWalla Walla                              -3.0664     0.9678  -3.168
## countyWasco                                    -2.3002     0.9341  -2.462
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas            1.1074     1.6280   0.680
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyDouglas       1.9451     1.2735   1.527
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas                 0.8115     1.2783   0.635
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas                  1.5413     1.2923   1.193
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas                   0.7282     1.3075   0.557
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas                   2.3958     1.3315   1.799
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin           1.5936     1.4688   1.085
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyFranklin      1.1964     1.2874   0.929
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin                1.1899     1.2920   0.921
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin                 2.0537     1.3387   1.534
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin                  1.2247     1.2645   0.969
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin                  1.5936     1.3574   1.174
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant              0.7559     1.6276   0.464
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant         1.5936     1.2729   1.252
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                   2.0537     1.3387   1.534
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                   18.2538   908.1178   0.020
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                     1.9487     1.2546   1.553
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                     2.8105     1.3106   2.144
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla           1.5936     1.4688   1.085
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla      0.1871     1.3739   0.136
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla                0.4601     1.2783   0.360
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                -0.2465     1.2813  -0.192
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                -15.7961   915.7270  -0.017
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                  1.0350     1.4140   0.732
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla        2.2287     1.6505   1.350
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla   2.6691     1.3161   2.028
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla             1.2263     1.3072   0.938
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla              1.5814     1.3046   1.212
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla               2.6974     1.2937   2.085
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla               1.6701     1.6015   1.043
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWasco              3.3095     1.3943   2.374
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWasco         1.4522     1.3193   1.101
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWasco                   2.3002     1.3134   1.751
## damagecauseFrost:countyWasco                    1.8964     1.2964   1.463
## damagecauseHail:countyWasco                   -15.0896   915.7271  -0.016
## damagecauseHeat:countyWasco                     2.3002     1.3620   1.689
##                                               Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                   0.763610    
## year2002                                      0.038159 *  
## year2003                                      0.200346    
## year2004                                      0.119448    
## year2005                                      0.010790 *  
## year2006                                      0.724798    
## year2007                                      0.020577 *  
## year2008                                      0.005512 ** 
## year2009                                      1.96e-06 ***
## year2010                                      3.12e-07 ***
## year2011                                      0.000135 ***
## year2012                                      1.96e-06 ***
## year2013                                      1.20e-07 ***
## year2014                                      1.14e-05 ***
## year2015                                      2.20e-09 ***
## damagecauseCold Winter                        0.000168 ***
## damagecauseDecline in Price                   0.004793 ** 
## damagecauseFreeze                             0.633100    
## damagecauseFrost                              0.633100    
## damagecauseHail                               0.013802 *  
## damagecauseHeat                               0.000474 ***
## countyDouglas                                 0.036130 *  
## countyFranklin                                0.085741 .  
## countyGrant                                   0.085741 .  
## countyUmatilla                                0.085741 .  
## countyWalla Walla                             0.001533 ** 
## countyWasco                                   0.013802 *  
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas          0.496356    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyDouglas     0.126678    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas               0.525526    
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas                0.232994    
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas                 0.577577    
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas                 0.071974 .  
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin         0.277934    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyFranklin    0.352744    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin              0.357052    
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin               0.125004    
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin                0.332793    
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin                0.240384    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant            0.642321    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant       0.210594    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                 0.125004    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                  0.983963    
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                   0.120368    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                   0.031996 *  
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla         0.277934    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla    0.891693    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla              0.718922    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla               0.847458    
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                0.986237    
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                0.464180    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla      0.176910    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla 0.042555 *  
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla           0.348207    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla            0.225475    
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla             0.037059 *  
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla             0.297049    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWasco            0.017619 *  
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWasco       0.271012    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWasco                 0.079895 .  
## damagecauseFrost:countyWasco                  0.143510    
## damagecauseHail:countyWasco                   0.986853    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWasco                   0.091251 .  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 975.88  on 734  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 635.62  on 672  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 761.62
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 16


FIGURE 32: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Now we run our CHERRIES mixed model analysis for these zero values.


FIGURE 33: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Checking for multi-collinearity for zero value run

##                            GVIF Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## year               1.234000e+00 14           1.008
## damagecause        8.692688e+04  6           2.580
## county             3.305766e+04  6           2.380
## damagecause:county 5.530000e+08 36           1.323


FIGURE 34: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = non_zero ~ year + damagecause * county, family = binomial(link = logit), 
##     data = alllevs2_cherries)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -2.3889  -0.6865  -0.2662   0.7332   2.6657  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                               Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept)                                    -0.2557     0.8504  -0.301
## year2002                                        1.3468     0.6496   2.073
## year2003                                        0.8558     0.6683   1.281
## year2004                                        1.0287     0.6607   1.557
## year2005                                        1.6378     0.6424   2.549
## year2006                                        0.2489     0.7071   0.352
## year2007                                        1.4951     0.6457   2.316
## year2008                                        1.7759     0.6398   2.775
## year2009                                        3.0258     0.6360   4.757
## year2010                                        3.2700     0.6391   5.116
## year2011                                        2.4185     0.6337   3.816
## year2012                                        3.0258     0.6360   4.757
## year2013                                        3.3940     0.6412   5.293
## year2014                                        2.7839     0.6342   4.390
## year2015                                        3.9136     0.6542   5.982
## damagecauseCold Winter                         -4.0757     1.0832  -3.763
## damagecauseDecline in Price                    -2.6691     0.9463  -2.821
## damagecauseFreeze                              -0.4601     0.9638  -0.477
## damagecauseFrost                               -0.4601     0.9638  -0.477
## damagecauseHail                                -2.3002     0.9341  -2.462
## damagecauseHeat                                -3.5171     1.0063  -3.495
## countyDouglas                                  -1.9451     0.9282  -2.095
## countyFranklin                                 -1.5936     0.9275  -1.718
## countyGrant                                    -1.5936     0.9275  -1.718
## countyUmatilla                                 -1.5936     0.9275  -1.718
## countyWalla Walla                              -3.0664     0.9678  -3.168
## countyWasco                                    -2.3002     0.9341  -2.462
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas            1.1074     1.6280   0.680
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyDouglas       1.9451     1.2735   1.527
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas                 0.8115     1.2783   0.635
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas                  1.5413     1.2923   1.193
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas                   0.7282     1.3075   0.557
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas                   2.3958     1.3315   1.799
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin           1.5936     1.4688   1.085
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyFranklin      1.1964     1.2874   0.929
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin                1.1899     1.2920   0.921
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin                 2.0537     1.3387   1.534
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin                  1.2247     1.2645   0.969
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin                  1.5936     1.3574   1.174
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant              0.7559     1.6276   0.464
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant         1.5936     1.2729   1.252
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                   2.0537     1.3387   1.534
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                   18.2538   908.1178   0.020
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                     1.9487     1.2546   1.553
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                     2.8105     1.3106   2.144
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla           1.5936     1.4688   1.085
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla      0.1871     1.3739   0.136
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla                0.4601     1.2783   0.360
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                -0.2465     1.2813  -0.192
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                -15.7961   915.7270  -0.017
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                  1.0350     1.4140   0.732
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla        2.2287     1.6505   1.350
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla   2.6691     1.3161   2.028
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla             1.2263     1.3072   0.938
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla              1.5814     1.3046   1.212
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla               2.6974     1.2937   2.085
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla               1.6701     1.6015   1.043
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWasco              3.3095     1.3943   2.374
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWasco         1.4522     1.3193   1.101
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWasco                   2.3002     1.3134   1.751
## damagecauseFrost:countyWasco                    1.8964     1.2964   1.463
## damagecauseHail:countyWasco                   -15.0896   915.7271  -0.016
## damagecauseHeat:countyWasco                     2.3002     1.3620   1.689
##                                               Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                   0.763610    
## year2002                                      0.038159 *  
## year2003                                      0.200346    
## year2004                                      0.119448    
## year2005                                      0.010790 *  
## year2006                                      0.724798    
## year2007                                      0.020577 *  
## year2008                                      0.005512 ** 
## year2009                                      1.96e-06 ***
## year2010                                      3.12e-07 ***
## year2011                                      0.000135 ***
## year2012                                      1.96e-06 ***
## year2013                                      1.20e-07 ***
## year2014                                      1.14e-05 ***
## year2015                                      2.20e-09 ***
## damagecauseCold Winter                        0.000168 ***
## damagecauseDecline in Price                   0.004793 ** 
## damagecauseFreeze                             0.633100    
## damagecauseFrost                              0.633100    
## damagecauseHail                               0.013802 *  
## damagecauseHeat                               0.000474 ***
## countyDouglas                                 0.036130 *  
## countyFranklin                                0.085741 .  
## countyGrant                                   0.085741 .  
## countyUmatilla                                0.085741 .  
## countyWalla Walla                             0.001533 ** 
## countyWasco                                   0.013802 *  
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas          0.496356    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyDouglas     0.126678    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas               0.525526    
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas                0.232994    
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas                 0.577577    
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas                 0.071974 .  
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin         0.277934    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyFranklin    0.352744    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin              0.357052    
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin               0.125004    
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin                0.332793    
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin                0.240384    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant            0.642321    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant       0.210594    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                 0.125004    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                  0.983963    
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                   0.120368    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                   0.031996 *  
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla         0.277934    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla    0.891693    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla              0.718922    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla               0.847458    
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                0.986237    
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                0.464180    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla      0.176910    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla 0.042555 *  
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla           0.348207    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla            0.225475    
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla             0.037059 *  
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla             0.297049    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWasco            0.017619 *  
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWasco       0.271012    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWasco                 0.079895 .  
## damagecauseFrost:countyWasco                  0.143510    
## damagecauseHail:countyWasco                   0.986853    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWasco                   0.091251 .  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 975.88  on 734  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 635.62  on 672  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 761.62
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 16


FIGURE 35: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Now subset to just those CHERRIES observations with a loss greater than zero (so all non-zeros), and run a linear regression (switched to log loss due to outliers), to make sure that our residuals and other parameters suggest normality.

## Linear mixed model fit by REML ['lmerMod']
## Formula: log(loss) ~ year + damagecause + (1 | county)
##    Data: subset(alllevs2_cherries, non_zero == 1)
## 
## REML criterion at convergence: 948
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -4.5506 -0.5865  0.1251  0.6044  2.5611 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups   Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  county   (Intercept) 0.1767   0.4203  
##  Residual             1.7597   1.3265  
## Number of obs: 279, groups:  county, 7
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                             Estimate Std. Error t value
## (Intercept)                   8.8975     0.6014  14.794
## year2002                      0.4859     0.6666   0.729
## year2003                     -0.2252     0.6993  -0.322
## year2004                      0.3002     0.6823   0.440
## year2005                      0.7762     0.6516   1.191
## year2006                      0.2667     0.7449   0.358
## year2007                      1.3422     0.6609   2.031
## year2008                      1.8676     0.6515   2.867
## year2009                      2.2442     0.6122   3.666
## year2010                      1.8473     0.6089   3.034
## year2011                      1.7326     0.6319   2.742
## year2012                      1.3609     0.6121   2.223
## year2013                      1.8619     0.6059   3.073
## year2014                      1.4657     0.6231   2.353
## year2015                      1.6261     0.6012   2.705
## damagecauseCold Winter       -0.8428     0.4203  -2.005
## damagecauseDecline in Price  -0.7787     0.3262  -2.387
## damagecauseFreeze             0.2005     0.2504   0.801
## damagecauseFrost              0.2548     0.2463   1.034
## damagecauseHail              -0.1646     0.3335  -0.493
## damagecauseHeat              -0.1494     0.3562  -0.419


FIGURE 36: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.



FIGURE 37: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Finally, we examine the CHERRIES coefficent estimates of our model output.


FIGURE 38: Cherries mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Hurdle Model - DRY PEAS

Here we run our hurdle technique for DRY PEAS Is our data normally distributed? What (if any) outliers exist? Are residuals well distributed - indicating normality?

##           llh       llhNull            G2      McFadden          r2ML 
##  -679.8268582 -1138.2908423   916.9279682     0.4027652     0.3620367 
##          r2CU 
##     0.5384221
## 
##  Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit (GOF) test
## 
## data:  alllevs2_drypeas$non_zero, fitted(m1)
## X-squared = 9.2597, df = 8, p-value = 0.3209


FIGURE 39: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Checking for mulit-collinearity

##                    GVIF  Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## year                NaN  14             NaN
## damagecause         NaN   7             NaN
## county              NaN  16             NaN
## damagecause:county  NaN 112             NaN


FIGURE 40: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = non_zero ~ year + damagecause * county, family = binomial(link = logit), 
##     data = alllevs2_drypeas)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.35061  -0.56960  -0.20076  -0.00002   2.86220  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                 Estimate Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                   -3.894e+00  1.104e+00
## year2002                                       4.163e-01  4.093e-01
## year2003                                       5.682e-01  4.052e-01
## year2004                                      -1.251e+00  4.957e-01
## year2005                                       9.201e-01  3.971e-01
## year2006                                       1.179e+00  3.924e-01
## year2007                                       6.416e-01  4.033e-01
## year2008                                       1.422e+00  3.890e-01
## year2009                                       7.133e-01  4.016e-01
## year2010                                       1.654e+00  3.865e-01
## year2011                                      -1.850e-01  4.304e-01
## year2012                                       7.133e-01  4.016e-01
## year2013                                       1.985e+00  3.845e-01
## year2014                                       2.412e+00  3.847e-01
## year2015                                       2.359e+00  3.845e-01
## damagecauseCold Winter                        -1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price                   -1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought                             2.158e+00  1.216e+00
## damagecauseFreeze                             -1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost                              -1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail                                8.209e-01  1.325e+00
## damagecauseHeat                                1.787e+00  1.233e+00
## countyBenewah                                  2.497e+00  1.207e+00
## countyClearwater                               5.266e-14  1.500e+00
## countyColumbia                                 4.326e-14  1.500e+00
## countyGarfield                                 2.547e-14  1.500e+00
## countyGrant                                    6.770e-14  1.500e+00
## countyIdaho                                    1.787e+00  1.233e+00
## countyKootenai                                 1.787e+00  1.233e+00
## countyLatah                                    2.497e+00  1.207e+00
## countyLewis                                    3.462e+00  1.208e+00
## countyLincoln                                 -1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## countyNez Perce                                2.158e+00  1.216e+00
## countySpokane                                  2.158e+00  1.216e+00
## countyUmatilla                                 3.461e-14  1.500e+00
## countyUnion                                   -1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## countyWalla Walla                              1.360e+00  1.263e+00
## countyWhitman                                  4.180e+00  1.238e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenewah          -2.497e+00  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenewah      1.518e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenewah              -1.192e+00  1.462e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenewah                1.436e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenewah                 1.615e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyBenewah                 -1.531e+00  1.574e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenewah                 -8.216e-01  1.476e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyClearwater        6.998e-08  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyClearwater   1.822e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyClearwater            2.022e+00  1.733e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyClearwater            -1.838e-07  3.697e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyClearwater              1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyClearwater               5.389e-01  1.830e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyClearwater               3.705e-01  1.731e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyColumbia          1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyColumbia     1.822e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyColumbia              1.647e+00  1.720e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyColumbia               1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyColumbia                1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyColumbia                 5.389e-01  1.830e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyColumbia                 2.017e+00  1.732e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGarfield          7.002e-08  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGarfield     1.768e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyGarfield             -7.980e-01  1.753e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGarfield              -1.837e-07  3.697e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyGarfield                3.264e-08  3.697e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyGarfield                -1.768e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHeat:countyGarfield                 7.097e-01  1.724e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant             6.999e-08  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant        1.453e-09  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant                -1.902e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                 -1.838e-07  3.697e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                   1.822e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                   -8.209e-01  2.001e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                   -6.521e-14  1.743e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyIdaho             1.589e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyIdaho        1.589e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyIdaho                -1.407e-01  1.492e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyIdaho                 -1.787e+00  3.697e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyIdaho                   1.589e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyIdaho                    5.302e-01  1.571e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyIdaho                   -1.120e-01  1.498e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyKootenai         -1.787e+00  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyKootenai    -1.787e+00  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyKootenai             -2.585e+00  1.530e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyKootenai              -1.787e+00  3.697e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyKootenai                1.507e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyKootenai                -1.947e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHeat:countyKootenai                -1.417e+00  1.505e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLatah             1.518e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLatah        1.572e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyLatah                 5.184e-01  1.569e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLatah                  1.615e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyLatah                   1.652e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyLatah                   -8.209e-01  1.554e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyLatah                    3.331e-01  1.527e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLewis             1.476e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLewis        1.476e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyLewis                -1.003e+00  1.514e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLewis                  1.340e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyLewis                   1.476e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyLewis                   -1.787e+00  1.554e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyLewis                   -7.671e-02  1.582e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLincoln           3.372e+01  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLincoln      3.454e+01  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyLincoln               1.649e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLincoln                3.372e+01  3.697e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyLincoln                 1.686e+01  4.528e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyLincoln                 -8.209e-01  3.697e+03
## damagecauseHeat:countyLincoln                  1.643e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyNez Perce         1.552e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyNez Perce    1.606e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyNez Perce             3.018e-01  1.521e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyNez Perce              1.606e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyNez Perce               1.649e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyNez Perce               -1.587e-01  1.558e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyNez Perce                6.723e-01  1.535e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySpokane          -2.158e+00  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySpokane      1.606e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countySpokane               8.575e-01  1.576e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countySpokane                1.552e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countySpokane                 1.606e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countySpokane                 -8.209e-01  1.568e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countySpokane                  2.351e-01  1.507e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla          6.999e-08  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla     1.440e-09  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla              6.622e-01  1.709e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla               1.768e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                1.822e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                -8.209e-01  2.001e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                 1.675e+00  1.725e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUnion             3.372e+01  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUnion        1.686e+01  4.528e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyUnion                -2.158e+00  3.697e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUnion                  1.686e+01  4.528e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyUnion                   3.508e+01  3.697e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyUnion                    1.740e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHeat:countyUnion                    1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla      -1.360e+00  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla  1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla          -5.503e-02  1.509e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla            1.632e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla             1.632e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla             -2.295e-02  1.605e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla              1.470e+00  1.573e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWhitman           1.447e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWhitman      1.404e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyWhitman              -1.165e+00  1.591e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWhitman                1.268e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyWhitman                 1.484e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyWhitman                 -1.538e+00  1.577e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyWhitman                 -1.350e+00  1.550e+00
##                                               z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                    -3.527 0.000420 ***
## year2002                                        1.017 0.309124    
## year2003                                        1.402 0.160813    
## year2004                                       -2.523 0.011643 *  
## year2005                                        2.317 0.020501 *  
## year2006                                        3.004 0.002664 ** 
## year2007                                        1.591 0.111684    
## year2008                                        3.656 0.000256 ***
## year2009                                        1.776 0.075696 .  
## year2010                                        4.278 1.88e-05 ***
## year2011                                       -0.430 0.667327    
## year2012                                        1.776 0.075696 .  
## year2013                                        5.163 2.44e-07 ***
## year2014                                        6.269 3.63e-10 ***
## year2015                                        6.135 8.53e-10 ***
## damagecauseCold Winter                         -0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseDecline in Price                    -0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseDrought                              1.775 0.075951 .  
## damagecauseFreeze                              -0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseFrost                               -0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseHail                                 0.620 0.535559    
## damagecauseHeat                                 1.450 0.147070    
## countyBenewah                                   2.069 0.038535 *  
## countyClearwater                                0.000 1.000000    
## countyColumbia                                  0.000 1.000000    
## countyGarfield                                  0.000 1.000000    
## countyGrant                                     0.000 1.000000    
## countyIdaho                                     1.450 0.147070    
## countyKootenai                                  1.450 0.147070    
## countyLatah                                     2.069 0.038535 *  
## countyLewis                                     2.865 0.004165 ** 
## countyLincoln                                  -0.006 0.994854    
## countyNez Perce                                 1.775 0.075951 .  
## countySpokane                                   1.775 0.075951 .  
## countyUmatilla                                  0.000 1.000000    
## countyUnion                                    -0.006 0.994854    
## countyWalla Walla                               1.077 0.281667    
## countyWhitman                                   3.377 0.000732 ***
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenewah           -0.001 0.999461    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenewah       0.006 0.995366    
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenewah               -0.815 0.414808    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenewah                 0.005 0.995616    
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenewah                  0.006 0.995071    
## damagecauseHail:countyBenewah                  -0.972 0.330959    
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenewah                  -0.557 0.577764    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyClearwater         0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyClearwater    0.007 0.994439    
## damagecauseDrought:countyClearwater             1.167 0.243350    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyClearwater              0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseFrost:countyClearwater               0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseHail:countyClearwater                0.294 0.768463    
## damagecauseHeat:countyClearwater                0.214 0.830481    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyColumbia           0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyColumbia      0.007 0.994439    
## damagecauseDrought:countyColumbia               0.957 0.338470    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyColumbia                0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseFrost:countyColumbia                 0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseHail:countyColumbia                  0.294 0.768463    
## damagecauseHeat:countyColumbia                  1.164 0.244299    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGarfield           0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGarfield      0.007 0.994604    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGarfield              -0.455 0.648911    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGarfield                0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGarfield                 0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseHail:countyGarfield                 -0.007 0.994604    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGarfield                  0.412 0.680639    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant              0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant         0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant                 -0.007 0.994196    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                   0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                    0.007 0.994439    
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                    -0.410 0.681693    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                     0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyIdaho              0.006 0.995149    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyIdaho         0.006 0.995149    
## damagecauseDrought:countyIdaho                 -0.094 0.924867    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyIdaho                   0.000 0.999614    
## damagecauseFrost:countyIdaho                    0.006 0.995149    
## damagecauseHail:countyIdaho                     0.337 0.735788    
## damagecauseHeat:countyIdaho                    -0.075 0.940408    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyKootenai           0.000 0.999614    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyKootenai      0.000 0.999614    
## damagecauseDrought:countyKootenai              -1.689 0.091178 .  
## damagecauseFreeze:countyKootenai                0.000 0.999614    
## damagecauseFrost:countyKootenai                 0.006 0.995400    
## damagecauseHail:countyKootenai                 -0.007 0.994058    
## damagecauseHeat:countyKootenai                 -0.942 0.346419    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLatah              0.006 0.995366    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLatah         0.006 0.995201    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLatah                  0.330 0.741127    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLatah                   0.006 0.995071    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLatah                    0.006 0.994958    
## damagecauseHail:countyLatah                    -0.528 0.597231    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLatah                     0.218 0.827319    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLewis              0.006 0.995496    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLewis         0.006 0.995496    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLewis                 -0.663 0.507626    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLewis                   0.005 0.995911    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLewis                    0.006 0.995496    
## damagecauseHail:countyLewis                    -1.149 0.250436    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLewis                    -0.048 0.961340    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLincoln            0.009 0.992723    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLincoln       0.009 0.992546    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLincoln                0.006 0.994967    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLincoln                 0.009 0.992723    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLincoln                  0.004 0.997029    
## damagecauseHail:countyLincoln                   0.000 0.999823    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLincoln                   0.006 0.994985    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyNez Perce          0.006 0.995262    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyNez Perce     0.006 0.995098    
## damagecauseDrought:countyNez Perce              0.198 0.842734    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyNez Perce               0.006 0.995098    
## damagecauseFrost:countyNez Perce                0.006 0.994967    
## damagecauseHail:countyNez Perce                -0.102 0.918856    
## damagecauseHeat:countyNez Perce                 0.438 0.661340    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySpokane           -0.001 0.999534    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySpokane       0.006 0.995098    
## damagecauseDrought:countySpokane                0.544 0.586466    
## damagecauseFreeze:countySpokane                 0.006 0.995262    
## damagecauseFrost:countySpokane                  0.006 0.995098    
## damagecauseHail:countySpokane                  -0.523 0.600637    
## damagecauseHeat:countySpokane                   0.156 0.876061    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla           0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla      0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla               0.387 0.698416    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla                0.007 0.994604    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                 0.007 0.994439    
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                 -0.410 0.681693    
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                  0.971 0.331477    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUnion              0.009 0.992723    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUnion         0.004 0.997029    
## damagecauseDrought:countyUnion                 -0.001 0.999534    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUnion                   0.004 0.997029    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUnion                    0.009 0.992429    
## damagecauseHail:countyUnion                     0.007 0.994690    
## damagecauseHeat:countyUnion                     0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla        0.000 0.999707    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla   0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla           -0.036 0.970915    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla             0.006 0.995019    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla              0.006 0.995019    
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla              -0.014 0.988596    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla               0.935 0.349923    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWhitman            0.006 0.995584    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWhitman       0.005 0.995715    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWhitman               -0.732 0.464127    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWhitman                 0.005 0.996130    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWhitman                  0.006 0.995471    
## damagecauseHail:countyWhitman                  -0.975 0.329327    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWhitman                  -0.871 0.383744    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2276.6  on 2039  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 1359.7  on 1890  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 1659.7
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 18


FIGURE 41: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Now we run our DRY PEAS mixed model analysis for these zero values.


FIGURE 42: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Checking for mulit-collinearity for zero values run

##                    GVIF  Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## year                NaN  14             NaN
## damagecause         NaN   7             NaN
## county              NaN  16             NaN
## damagecause:county  NaN 112             NaN


FIGURE 43: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = non_zero ~ year + damagecause * county, family = binomial(link = logit), 
##     data = alllevs2_drypeas)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.35061  -0.56960  -0.20076  -0.00002   2.86220  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                 Estimate Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                   -3.894e+00  1.104e+00
## year2002                                       4.163e-01  4.093e-01
## year2003                                       5.682e-01  4.052e-01
## year2004                                      -1.251e+00  4.957e-01
## year2005                                       9.201e-01  3.971e-01
## year2006                                       1.179e+00  3.924e-01
## year2007                                       6.416e-01  4.033e-01
## year2008                                       1.422e+00  3.890e-01
## year2009                                       7.133e-01  4.016e-01
## year2010                                       1.654e+00  3.865e-01
## year2011                                      -1.850e-01  4.304e-01
## year2012                                       7.133e-01  4.016e-01
## year2013                                       1.985e+00  3.845e-01
## year2014                                       2.412e+00  3.847e-01
## year2015                                       2.359e+00  3.845e-01
## damagecauseCold Winter                        -1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price                   -1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought                             2.158e+00  1.216e+00
## damagecauseFreeze                             -1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost                              -1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail                                8.209e-01  1.325e+00
## damagecauseHeat                                1.787e+00  1.233e+00
## countyBenewah                                  2.497e+00  1.207e+00
## countyClearwater                               5.266e-14  1.500e+00
## countyColumbia                                 4.326e-14  1.500e+00
## countyGarfield                                 2.547e-14  1.500e+00
## countyGrant                                    6.770e-14  1.500e+00
## countyIdaho                                    1.787e+00  1.233e+00
## countyKootenai                                 1.787e+00  1.233e+00
## countyLatah                                    2.497e+00  1.207e+00
## countyLewis                                    3.462e+00  1.208e+00
## countyLincoln                                 -1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## countyNez Perce                                2.158e+00  1.216e+00
## countySpokane                                  2.158e+00  1.216e+00
## countyUmatilla                                 3.461e-14  1.500e+00
## countyUnion                                   -1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## countyWalla Walla                              1.360e+00  1.263e+00
## countyWhitman                                  4.180e+00  1.238e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenewah          -2.497e+00  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenewah      1.518e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenewah              -1.192e+00  1.462e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenewah                1.436e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenewah                 1.615e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyBenewah                 -1.531e+00  1.574e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenewah                 -8.216e-01  1.476e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyClearwater        6.998e-08  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyClearwater   1.822e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyClearwater            2.022e+00  1.733e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyClearwater            -1.838e-07  3.697e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyClearwater              1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyClearwater               5.389e-01  1.830e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyClearwater               3.705e-01  1.731e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyColumbia          1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyColumbia     1.822e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyColumbia              1.647e+00  1.720e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyColumbia               1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyColumbia                1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyColumbia                 5.389e-01  1.830e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyColumbia                 2.017e+00  1.732e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGarfield          7.002e-08  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGarfield     1.768e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyGarfield             -7.980e-01  1.753e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGarfield              -1.837e-07  3.697e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyGarfield                3.264e-08  3.697e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyGarfield                -1.768e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHeat:countyGarfield                 7.097e-01  1.724e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant             6.999e-08  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant        1.453e-09  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant                -1.902e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                 -1.838e-07  3.697e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                   1.822e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                   -8.209e-01  2.001e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                   -6.521e-14  1.743e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyIdaho             1.589e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyIdaho        1.589e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyIdaho                -1.407e-01  1.492e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyIdaho                 -1.787e+00  3.697e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyIdaho                   1.589e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyIdaho                    5.302e-01  1.571e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyIdaho                   -1.120e-01  1.498e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyKootenai         -1.787e+00  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyKootenai    -1.787e+00  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyKootenai             -2.585e+00  1.530e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyKootenai              -1.787e+00  3.697e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyKootenai                1.507e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyKootenai                -1.947e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHeat:countyKootenai                -1.417e+00  1.505e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLatah             1.518e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLatah        1.572e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyLatah                 5.184e-01  1.569e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLatah                  1.615e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyLatah                   1.652e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyLatah                   -8.209e-01  1.554e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyLatah                    3.331e-01  1.527e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLewis             1.476e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLewis        1.476e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyLewis                -1.003e+00  1.514e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLewis                  1.340e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyLewis                   1.476e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyLewis                   -1.787e+00  1.554e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyLewis                   -7.671e-02  1.582e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLincoln           3.372e+01  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLincoln      3.454e+01  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyLincoln               1.649e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLincoln                3.372e+01  3.697e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyLincoln                 1.686e+01  4.528e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyLincoln                 -8.209e-01  3.697e+03
## damagecauseHeat:countyLincoln                  1.643e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyNez Perce         1.552e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyNez Perce    1.606e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyNez Perce             3.018e-01  1.521e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyNez Perce              1.606e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyNez Perce               1.649e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyNez Perce               -1.587e-01  1.558e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyNez Perce                6.723e-01  1.535e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySpokane          -2.158e+00  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySpokane      1.606e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countySpokane               8.575e-01  1.576e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countySpokane                1.552e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countySpokane                 1.606e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countySpokane                 -8.209e-01  1.568e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countySpokane                  2.351e-01  1.507e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla          6.999e-08  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla     1.440e-09  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla              6.622e-01  1.709e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla               1.768e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                1.822e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                -8.209e-01  2.001e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                 1.675e+00  1.725e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUnion             3.372e+01  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUnion        1.686e+01  4.528e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyUnion                -2.158e+00  3.697e+03
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUnion                  1.686e+01  4.528e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyUnion                   3.508e+01  3.697e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyUnion                    1.740e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHeat:countyUnion                    1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla      -1.360e+00  3.697e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla  1.686e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla          -5.503e-02  1.509e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla            1.632e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla             1.632e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla             -2.295e-02  1.605e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla              1.470e+00  1.573e+00
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWhitman           1.447e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWhitman      1.404e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseDrought:countyWhitman              -1.165e+00  1.591e+00
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWhitman                1.268e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseFrost:countyWhitman                 1.484e+01  2.614e+03
## damagecauseHail:countyWhitman                 -1.538e+00  1.577e+00
## damagecauseHeat:countyWhitman                 -1.350e+00  1.550e+00
##                                               z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                    -3.527 0.000420 ***
## year2002                                        1.017 0.309124    
## year2003                                        1.402 0.160813    
## year2004                                       -2.523 0.011643 *  
## year2005                                        2.317 0.020501 *  
## year2006                                        3.004 0.002664 ** 
## year2007                                        1.591 0.111684    
## year2008                                        3.656 0.000256 ***
## year2009                                        1.776 0.075696 .  
## year2010                                        4.278 1.88e-05 ***
## year2011                                       -0.430 0.667327    
## year2012                                        1.776 0.075696 .  
## year2013                                        5.163 2.44e-07 ***
## year2014                                        6.269 3.63e-10 ***
## year2015                                        6.135 8.53e-10 ***
## damagecauseCold Winter                         -0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseDecline in Price                    -0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseDrought                              1.775 0.075951 .  
## damagecauseFreeze                              -0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseFrost                               -0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseHail                                 0.620 0.535559    
## damagecauseHeat                                 1.450 0.147070    
## countyBenewah                                   2.069 0.038535 *  
## countyClearwater                                0.000 1.000000    
## countyColumbia                                  0.000 1.000000    
## countyGarfield                                  0.000 1.000000    
## countyGrant                                     0.000 1.000000    
## countyIdaho                                     1.450 0.147070    
## countyKootenai                                  1.450 0.147070    
## countyLatah                                     2.069 0.038535 *  
## countyLewis                                     2.865 0.004165 ** 
## countyLincoln                                  -0.006 0.994854    
## countyNez Perce                                 1.775 0.075951 .  
## countySpokane                                   1.775 0.075951 .  
## countyUmatilla                                  0.000 1.000000    
## countyUnion                                    -0.006 0.994854    
## countyWalla Walla                               1.077 0.281667    
## countyWhitman                                   3.377 0.000732 ***
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenewah           -0.001 0.999461    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenewah       0.006 0.995366    
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenewah               -0.815 0.414808    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenewah                 0.005 0.995616    
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenewah                  0.006 0.995071    
## damagecauseHail:countyBenewah                  -0.972 0.330959    
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenewah                  -0.557 0.577764    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyClearwater         0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyClearwater    0.007 0.994439    
## damagecauseDrought:countyClearwater             1.167 0.243350    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyClearwater              0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseFrost:countyClearwater               0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseHail:countyClearwater                0.294 0.768463    
## damagecauseHeat:countyClearwater                0.214 0.830481    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyColumbia           0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyColumbia      0.007 0.994439    
## damagecauseDrought:countyColumbia               0.957 0.338470    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyColumbia                0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseFrost:countyColumbia                 0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseHail:countyColumbia                  0.294 0.768463    
## damagecauseHeat:countyColumbia                  1.164 0.244299    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGarfield           0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGarfield      0.007 0.994604    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGarfield              -0.455 0.648911    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGarfield                0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGarfield                 0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseHail:countyGarfield                 -0.007 0.994604    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGarfield                  0.412 0.680639    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant              0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant         0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant                 -0.007 0.994196    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                   0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                    0.007 0.994439    
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                    -0.410 0.681693    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                     0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyIdaho              0.006 0.995149    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyIdaho         0.006 0.995149    
## damagecauseDrought:countyIdaho                 -0.094 0.924867    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyIdaho                   0.000 0.999614    
## damagecauseFrost:countyIdaho                    0.006 0.995149    
## damagecauseHail:countyIdaho                     0.337 0.735788    
## damagecauseHeat:countyIdaho                    -0.075 0.940408    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyKootenai           0.000 0.999614    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyKootenai      0.000 0.999614    
## damagecauseDrought:countyKootenai              -1.689 0.091178 .  
## damagecauseFreeze:countyKootenai                0.000 0.999614    
## damagecauseFrost:countyKootenai                 0.006 0.995400    
## damagecauseHail:countyKootenai                 -0.007 0.994058    
## damagecauseHeat:countyKootenai                 -0.942 0.346419    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLatah              0.006 0.995366    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLatah         0.006 0.995201    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLatah                  0.330 0.741127    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLatah                   0.006 0.995071    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLatah                    0.006 0.994958    
## damagecauseHail:countyLatah                    -0.528 0.597231    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLatah                     0.218 0.827319    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLewis              0.006 0.995496    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLewis         0.006 0.995496    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLewis                 -0.663 0.507626    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLewis                   0.005 0.995911    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLewis                    0.006 0.995496    
## damagecauseHail:countyLewis                    -1.149 0.250436    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLewis                    -0.048 0.961340    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLincoln            0.009 0.992723    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLincoln       0.009 0.992546    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLincoln                0.006 0.994967    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLincoln                 0.009 0.992723    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLincoln                  0.004 0.997029    
## damagecauseHail:countyLincoln                   0.000 0.999823    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLincoln                   0.006 0.994985    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyNez Perce          0.006 0.995262    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyNez Perce     0.006 0.995098    
## damagecauseDrought:countyNez Perce              0.198 0.842734    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyNez Perce               0.006 0.995098    
## damagecauseFrost:countyNez Perce                0.006 0.994967    
## damagecauseHail:countyNez Perce                -0.102 0.918856    
## damagecauseHeat:countyNez Perce                 0.438 0.661340    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySpokane           -0.001 0.999534    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySpokane       0.006 0.995098    
## damagecauseDrought:countySpokane                0.544 0.586466    
## damagecauseFreeze:countySpokane                 0.006 0.995262    
## damagecauseFrost:countySpokane                  0.006 0.995098    
## damagecauseHail:countySpokane                  -0.523 0.600637    
## damagecauseHeat:countySpokane                   0.156 0.876061    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla           0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla      0.000 1.000000    
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla               0.387 0.698416    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla                0.007 0.994604    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                 0.007 0.994439    
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                 -0.410 0.681693    
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                  0.971 0.331477    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUnion              0.009 0.992723    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUnion         0.004 0.997029    
## damagecauseDrought:countyUnion                 -0.001 0.999534    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUnion                   0.004 0.997029    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUnion                    0.009 0.992429    
## damagecauseHail:countyUnion                     0.007 0.994690    
## damagecauseHeat:countyUnion                     0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla        0.000 0.999707    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla   0.006 0.994854    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla           -0.036 0.970915    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla             0.006 0.995019    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla              0.006 0.995019    
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla              -0.014 0.988596    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla               0.935 0.349923    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWhitman            0.006 0.995584    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWhitman       0.005 0.995715    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWhitman               -0.732 0.464127    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWhitman                 0.005 0.996130    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWhitman                  0.006 0.995471    
## damagecauseHail:countyWhitman                  -0.975 0.329327    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWhitman                  -0.871 0.383744    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2276.6  on 2039  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 1359.7  on 1890  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 1659.7
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 18


FIGURE 44: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Now subset to just those DRY PEAS observations with a loss greater than zero (so all non-zeros), and run a linear regression (switched to log loss due to outliers), to make sure that our residuals and other parameters suggest normality.

## Linear mixed model fit by REML ['lmerMod']
## Formula: log(loss) ~ year + damagecause + (1 | county)
##    Data: subset(alllevs2_drypeas, non_zero == 1)
## 
## REML criterion at convergence: 1860
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -3.9544 -0.4928  0.1551  0.6655  2.1097 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups   Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  county   (Intercept) 0.3996   0.6321  
##  Residual             2.2811   1.5103  
## Number of obs: 502, groups:  county, 17
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                             Estimate Std. Error t value
## (Intercept)                   6.4011     0.4337  14.758
## year2002                      1.1477     0.4605   2.492
## year2003                      1.7577     0.4493   3.912
## year2004                      1.6750     0.6272   2.670
## year2005                      2.2060     0.4360   5.059
## year2006                      1.3581     0.4271   3.180
## year2007                      1.6262     0.4486   3.625
## year2008                      2.4535     0.4210   5.828
## year2009                      1.8246     0.4456   4.095
## year2010                      2.3902     0.4191   5.703
## year2011                      2.0400     0.5166   3.949
## year2012                      2.2563     0.4510   5.003
## year2013                      2.4718     0.4136   5.977
## year2014                      2.9396     0.4059   7.243
## year2015                      3.8526     0.4023   9.577
## damagecauseCold Winter       -0.6207     0.4355  -1.425
## damagecauseDecline in Price  -0.4614     0.3677  -1.255
## damagecauseDrought            0.4783     0.2587   1.849
## damagecauseFreeze            -0.9689     0.4255  -2.277
## damagecauseFrost             -0.2361     0.3297  -0.716
## damagecauseHail               0.3804     0.2905   1.309
## damagecauseHeat               0.2298     0.2515   0.914


FIGURE 45: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.



FIGURE 46: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Finally, we examine the DRY PEAS coefficent estimates of our model output.


FIGURE 47: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.